Visa Bulletin predictions, graded against the past
Enter a priority date to see the range of months in which it is likely to turn current, or why the back-test says the case cannot be forecast.
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · Method and past error
Forecast
No reliable forecast
9 months behind the cutoff. Past forecasts for this case missed too often to publish a date.
| Final Action Date | May 15, 2024 |
|---|---|
| Date for Filing | August 1, 2024 |
| I-485 this month (USCIS uses Dates for Filing) | Not yet |
| Past error at 12 months behind (our model) | ±5 mo., range held 76 % |
| I-485 employment, national average (August 2026) | 11.8 months |
| Government fees (paper filing, with work permit and travel permit) | $3,645 |
How this was calculated
- The October 2026 Final Action Date for EB-3, All other countries, is May 15, 2024; your priority date is February 1, 2025, 9 months later.
- For each of the 120 months of the last 10 years, we measured how long this cutoff took to move forward by that same distance. Half the cases took 1 month; 20% took 1 month or less; 80% took 8 months or less.
- Back-test from October 2012 to October 2025: for people 12 months behind, the middle estimate was off by a median of 5 months (a naive “last 12 months” rule: 8), and the range held the real date 76 % of the time. That fails our publication rule, so no date is shown.
- Fees: I-140 $715 + I-140 $600 + I-485 $1,440 + I-765 $260 + I-131 $630 (USCIS Form G-1055, edition 10/07/26, and State Department visa fees).
Estimate from public data, not legal advice. Your case may differ (cross-chargeability, CSPA, waivers). For advice, see a licensed immigration attorney or a DOJ-accredited representative. Not affiliated with USCIS or the Department of State. Method and past error
A Visa Bulletin prediction is a statement about future demand and future numbers, two things the State Department sees and the public does not. What can be measured is how fast each cutoff has closed the same distance in the past. Our table takes a priority date set twelve months behind the October 2026 Final Action Date for 27 cases and asks when it turns current, as a range from the 20th to the 80th percentile of ten years of observed waits. Each range was back-tested month by month from October 2012 to October 2025. This month 9 cases pass that test and show a range; 16 fail it and say no reliable forecast; 2 have a cutoff too recent or no cutoff at all to test a full year behind. For EB-2 India, the typical miss a year out was 12 months. We do not predict next month's exact dates.
What a forecast can know, and what it cannot
The cutoff in each box is chosen by the State Department so that the people who become eligible in a month roughly match the visa numbers left for the fiscal year. It sees how many applicants are documentarily qualified, how many I-485 cases USCIS holds, and how many family numbers went unused the year before, which raise the next employment limit (the December 2022 bulletin counted about 57,000). None of that is published in a form anyone can model month by month. A prediction from outside is therefore a reading of the past, and it should say so.
How the table below is built
For each case we place a priority date exactly twelve months behind this month's Final Action Date, then ask how long the cutoff has taken, from every starting month in the previous ten years, to advance twelve months. Waits that never finished inside the archive are kept as unfinished rather than thrown away. The 20th and 80th percentiles of those waits give the range in the third column; the fourth column is the median miss of the same method, run on each month from October 2012 to October 2025 without seeing the future.
Why most employment boxes stay blank
This month 8 cases show a model range, 1 show the twelve-month pace instead, and 16 show no reliable forecast. EB-2 India held its range often enough, but its typical miss a year out was 12 months, too wide to publish. EB-2 for the rest of the world, which went from current to a date and back several times, missed by 12. Steadier family lines do better: F1 worldwide missed by 7 months and F4 Philippines by 4. F1 Mexico, at 12, is withheld. In 2 cases, such as F2A, the cutoff is less than a year old, so a date twelve months behind it does not exist yet.
What we never print
We do not print the November 2026 cutoff before the State Department does, we do not call a retrogression in advance, and we do not estimate consulate interview waits, which are not published. If your case depends on timing, for a job change under portability or a child near 21, the retrogression guide and a licensed immigration attorney are better guides than any range. Your own date, at any distance, goes in the priority date calculator.
A year behind the cutoff: when does it turn current?
| Case | Cutoff, October 2026 | Likely current (20% to 80%) | Past median error |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 · All other countries | January 22, 2020 | May 2027 – November 2029 | 7 months |
| F1 · Mexico | September 8, 2008 | No reliable forecast | 12 months |
| F1 · Philippines | November 1, 2013 | No reliable forecast | 11 months |
| F2A · All other countries | September 22, 2026 | cutoff within a year of today | – |
| F2A · Mexico | March 22, 2026 | cutoff within a year of today | – |
| F2B · All other countries | August 22, 2019 | July 2027 – February 2030 | 5 months |
| F2B · Mexico | May 15, 2010 | November 2026 – September 2027 | 7 months (12-month pace) |
| F2B · Philippines | October 1, 2013 | September 2027 – July 2030 | 7 months |
| F3 · All other countries | October 22, 2014 | July 2027 – January 2029 | 5 months |
| F3 · Mexico | July 1, 2001 | No reliable forecast | 13 months |
| F3 · Philippines | July 22, 2006 | No reliable forecast | 12 months |
| F4 · All other countries | October 22, 2011 | September 2027 – January 2031 | 10 months |
| F4 · India | December 15, 2006 | December 2028 – October 2030 | 10 months |
| F4 · Mexico | April 22, 2001 | No reliable forecast | 21 months |
| F4 · Philippines | May 15, 2008 | April 2027 – September 2028 | 4 months |
| EB-1 · India | February 1, 2023 | No reliable forecast | 5 months |
| EB-1 · China (mainland born) | July 1, 2023 | No reliable forecast | 14 months |
| EB-2 · All other countries | January 1, 2025 | No reliable forecast | 12 months |
| EB-2 · India | November 1, 2013 | No reliable forecast | 12 months |
| EB-2 · China (mainland born) | October 1, 2021 | June 2027 – November 2028 | 6 months |
| EB-3 · All other countries | May 15, 2024 | No reliable forecast | 5 months |
| EB-3 · India | January 1, 2014 | No reliable forecast | 9 months |
| EB-3 · China (mainland born) | January 8, 2022 | No reliable forecast | 5 months |
| EB-3 · Philippines | August 15, 2023 | No reliable forecast | 5 months |
| EB-3 Other Workers · All other countries | January 1, 2022 | No reliable forecast | 7 months |
| EB-5 · India | December 1, 2023 | No reliable forecast | 4 months |
| EB-5 · China (mainland born) | December 1, 2016 | No reliable forecast | 24 months |