F2B Mexico: a resident’s unmarried son or daughter, born in Mexico

Three years of real movement

For most of the last decade F2B Mexico crawled: October 1, 1995 in October 2016, January 1, 2002 in October 2023. Then the pace changed. The cutoff gained about 36 months in the year to October 2024, 35 the next year and 29 in the past twelve months, to May 15, 2010 today. The pattern is stop and go: the previous date held for 8 bulletins before the latest one moved it 454 days at once.

A column that rarely goes back

F2B Mexico has retrogressed 6 times since 2001, and its largest drop was about 14 months in July 2005. Every other Mexican family column has lost at least 59 months in a single bulletin at some point. That record is why the calculator, whose main model fails the back-test for this case, can still show a range based on the pace of the last twelve months, which passed it.

The F1 paradox

Today F2B Mexico is ahead of F1 Mexico, September 8, 2008. A resident parent who becomes a citizen therefore moves an adult Mexican-born child onto the slower line, unless the child asks to remain in F2B. The F2B to F1 guide sets out the rule and runs the comparison. See also the F1 Mexico page.

What the calculator shows

For a priority date of May 15, 2011, one year after the cutoff, the calculator gives November 2026 to September 2027, using the twelve-month pace that passed the back-test. The main model’s twelve-month error was 10 months.

Where the case ends depends on where the beneficiary lives. From Mexico it is an immigrant visa interview at a U.S. consulate, priced in the consular cost breakdown. From inside the United States, adjustment is open only to someone whose status allows it, and only once the Mexico F2B Date for Filing, March 22, 2011 at present, is later than the priority date in a month USCIS has chosen that chart.

F2B in the October 2026 bulletin

Every October since 2002

How our forecast did for this case